The Commonwealth Fund has released a data brief titled Paying the Price: How Health Insurance Premiums Are Eating Up Middle –Class Incomes (pdf) that examines the trend of rising premiums and projects future premium increases for each of the 50 states.

The report also projects potential savings for families and employers if national reforms are implemented to reduce health care costs by up to 1.5 percent per year.

The report indicates that household income is being outstripped by increases in premium rates at both the state and national levels. For example, it shows that between 1999 and 2008, employer-sponsored family health insurance premiums rose by 119 percent nationally, while median family income rose by only 29 percent.

Absent significant reforms, the report projects that the average premium for family coverage will rise from $12,298 (the average for 2008) to $23,842 by 2020 — an increase of 94 percent.

In their projection of potential savings, the authors point out that “a combination of insurance market reforms, payment incentives that reward high-value care, and other health system reforms to bring about more patient-centered, coordinated care could reduce national costs by an average of 1 to 1.5 percentage points per year over the next decade.”

By 2020, the 1 percent reduction, they said, would save $2,571 per premium for family coverage while the 1.5 percent reduction would save $3,759.

In an accompanying blog post, Karen Davis, president of The Commonwealth Fund, discusses economic policy considerations in more detail and expresses strong support for a public health insurance plan as a means to slow the growth in premiums.