State Medicaid programs will spend $1.6 trillion on long-term care expenses over the next twenty years, according to a new study (pdf 3.2MB) released by America’s Health Insurance Plans (AHIP).

The AHIP study claims that if current policies and trends continue, between 2008 and 2027 annual Medicaid long-term care expenditures will grow by 124% from $51.5 billion to $115.6 billion.

Other Findings

In 2008, fifteen states are expected to spend $1 billion on Medicaid long-term care services. By 2027, twenty-five states will be spending $1 billion or more.

States with the highest projected expenditures over the next twenty years:

• New York ($271 billion)
• California ($230 billion)
• Pennsylvania ($104 billion.)

States with the fastest growing Medicaid long-term care expenses:

• Alaska (7 percent)
• California (6.4 percent)
• Arizona (5.9 percent)

Reaction from PHI

Steven L. Dawson, president of PHI, notes that “with the enormous growth of the aging population, we have to expect that Medicaid expenditures will grow. But if we spend that money on improving the quality of direct-care jobs, long-term care can be an important engine for our sagging economy.”

“Direct-care work is one of the fastest-growing jobs in the country–and these jobs can’t be outsourced. By paying a decent wage, providing benefits, and offering quality training, we could support our aging population and provide millions of quality jobs to America’s workers,” he said.

Aaron Toleos, Online Communications Director
atoleos@phinational.org